The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) developed an index that measures economic policy uncertainty based media references. They found that policy uncertainty tends to raise market volatility and potentially foreshadow declines in investment, output, and employment in the United States . As shown in the chart below, policy uncertainty is at its highest level since COVID and more than double what it was during the Great Financial Crisis. This rising uncertainty has raised recession odds and market volatility. Read More

The “Big, Beautiful Bill” passed the House of Representatives. While it still must pass the Senate, the Tax Foundation estimates the bill will add ~$3.3 to $5.3 trillion to the deficit through 2034 . If our fiscal outlook is apparently poor, what are the macro-economic factors we should be paying attention to? Read More

Following President Trump’s re-election in November 2024, markets initially rallied on expectations of deregulation and tax cuts. But those require Congressional action—and time. In the meantime, the administration has focused on areas it can affect unilaterally: reducing government inefficiency, ramping up deportations, and, most consequential for financial markets, imposing significant new tariffs. Read More

The year 2024 brought significant developments across financial markets, shaped by shifting economic conditions, geopolitical dynamics, and post-election policy changes. Technology and energy sectors made headlines with rapid innovation and growth, while the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rates kept investors on edge. Read More

2024 was a strong year for almost every asset class, with U.S. equities leading the charge. In our last quarterly commentary, we mentioned that the S&P 500 Index had hit 47 new highs in 2024, ultimately adding 12 more before year-end. This rise was driven by optimism around U.S. growth, artificial intelligence, and the potential for deregulation under a new administration. Read More