In this article, we discuss the pace of economic recovery, monetary policy, and what this might mean for U.S. equity markets as winter comes to an end. Read More

“I will impart a knowledge of the Art to my own sons, and those of my teachers, and to disciples bound by a stipulation and oath according to the law of medicine, but to none others. I will follow that system of regimen which, according to my ability and judgment, I consider for the benefit… Read More

The COVID crisis injected uncertainty into the markets and many investors earlier this year. While investors watched as the virus spread, many wondered how long this might play out and whether they should sell some equities and park that money in cash. Other investors didn’t wonder at all – they sold first, and asked questions… Read More

On August 18th, the S&P 500 Index hit a new all-time high after having recouped its losses for the year. Since then, it has continued to move mostly higher. Many investors interpret this as meaning that all stocks are back to their highs of the year, but that is not the case. Here’s why:  The… Read More

There are few events as uncertain and long-lasting as a run-up to a presidential election. It’s a trying time for investors in the best of years, and 2020 has certainly been no exception. The combination of events we’ve faced this year provides a perfect recipe for investors of all persuasions to be nervous about what… Read More

For most of the last decade, the US stock market had been trending generally higher year after year. That was until the fourth quarter of 2018 gave us a scare. Back then we remarked how it was the first drop of greater than 15% in seven years and how unusual that was (because on average it happens once every three years – see the chart below, a version of which we also shared in our 2018 year-end market commentary). Read More

Following the best quarterly performance for US stocks in 23 years, the S&P 500 continued to move higher throughout most of the third quarter. At one point in early September, the S&P 500 was +15.9% for the quarter and posting new all-time highs. Read More

Following the worst quarter for US stocks since the end of 2008, we have managed to tally the best quarter in 23 years, with the S&P 500 up 20.5% in the second quarter (including dividends). Since 1949, this was the fourth-best quarter – which followed the fifth-worst quarter. 2020 Q2 also featured impressive performance from… Read More

The first quarter of 2020 was a pretty rough one. The S&P 500 ended the quarter down 20.0% (down 19.6% on a total return basis, including dividends) – the worst quarterly return since the fourth quarter of 2008. As everyone knows by now, this was all due to the coronavirus and the toll of this… Read More

“Progress is invisible to most people because they don’t get their understanding of the world from numbers; they get it from headlines. Journalism by its very nature conceals progress, because it presents sudden events rather than gradual trends. Most things that happen suddenly are bad: a war, a shooting, an epidemic, a scandal, a financial… Read More