The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) developed an index that measures economic policy uncertainty based media references. They found that policy uncertainty tends to raise market volatility and potentially foreshadow declines in investment, output, and employment in the United States . As shown in the chart below, policy uncertainty is at its highest level since COVID and more than double what it was during the Great Financial Crisis. This rising uncertainty has raised recession odds and market volatility. Read More

Following President Trump’s re-election in November 2024, markets initially rallied on expectations of deregulation and tax cuts. But those require Congressional action—and time. In the meantime, the administration has focused on areas it can affect unilaterally: reducing government inefficiency, ramping up deportations, and, most consequential for financial markets, imposing significant new tariffs. Read More

2024 was a strong year for almost every asset class, with U.S. equities leading the charge. In our last quarterly commentary, we mentioned that the S&P 500 Index had hit 47 new highs in 2024, ultimately adding 12 more before year-end. This rise was driven by optimism around U.S. growth, artificial intelligence, and the potential for deregulation under a new administration. Read More

The S&P 500 Index, a key indicator of the overall stock market, reached 43 new all-time highs in 2024, with the latest at 5,672 at the end of Q3 and the previous on July 16th at 5,667. The market had been rising steadily until mid-July, when weak reports from major S&P 500 stocks, a surprise… Read More

By Cliff Aque, AIF®, CFA® During the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), the phrase “the new normal” gained popularity. However, it has also been used at other times of dilemma: in 1918 regarding the aftermath of World War I, in 2003 after the dot-com bubble, and in 2005 during the avian flu (according to Wikipedia). There… Read More