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A Tale of Two Bulls

1Q 2009

In the six quarters since we began writing these summaries, there’s been little opportunity to mention bull markets. Indeed, with the S&P 500 falling another 11.0% to start 2009, and the included statements likely reflecting still lower valuations, you may be thinking it’s odd to even use such a phrase to describe the recent investing landscape. However, if you’ll read… Read More

Biggest Surprises in a Tumultuous Year

4Q 2008

In this very piece a year ago we assured you that 2008 would be an “adventure”. Given the events that unfolded, we doubt that anyone could now question the accuracy of that prediction. That said, being able to forecast adventurous times ahead is much different than knowing the future. In the following paragraphs, we’ve borrowed portions of a Top 10… Read More

The Prelude to Capitulation

3Q 2008

While we did not enter the quarter expecting sleepy summertime markets, we surely wouldn’t have predicted or even imagined the scenarios that unfolded. By the end of September, we had witnessed several historic events: the government’s intervention with Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and AIG; failures at Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual; two shotgun mergers that forced both Merrill Lynch and Wachovia into… Read More

The Awakening of a Bear

2Q 2008

As the second quarter began, investors held out hope that the worst of the credit crunch was over, and that stocks would rise as the economy regained momentum late in the year. On April 1st, the S&P 500 actually appreciated by 4.1%, and by mid- May the index was within 1.9% of being back at break-even for the year. However,… Read More

Fear Takes Round One

1Q 2008

It has often been said that financial markets are an ongoing social experiment pitting fear against greed. As we reflect on the first quarter of 2008, it’s hard to disguise the fact that global markets remain in a season of unrest. In such times, it’s easy for a crisis of confidence to emerge that overshadows sound long-term thinking. To appease… Read More

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