By Cliff Aque, CFA Markets entered 2026 with the wind at their backs: a growing economy, cooling inflation, three Fed rate cuts, and five consecutive years of double-digit earnings growth. Then the road map changed. By the end of the first quarter, the S&P 500 had declined 4.3%[1], with tech stocks hit significantly harder. Three… Read More

By Cliff Aque, CFA The fourth quarter of 2025 put a bow on a year that looked chaotic in headlines but coherent in markets. Growth held together, inflation cooled without collapsing demand, and financial markets did what they tend to do when uncertainty fades just enough: they climbed. By year-end, most major risk assets were… Read More

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) developed an index that measures economic policy uncertainty based media references. They found that policy uncertainty tends to raise market volatility and potentially foreshadow declines in investment, output, and employment in the United States . As shown in the chart below, policy uncertainty is at its highest level since COVID and more than double what it was during the Great Financial Crisis. This rising uncertainty has raised recession odds and market volatility. Read More

Following President Trump’s re-election in November 2024, markets initially rallied on expectations of deregulation and tax cuts. But those require Congressional action—and time. In the meantime, the administration has focused on areas it can affect unilaterally: reducing government inefficiency, ramping up deportations, and, most consequential for financial markets, imposing significant new tariffs. Read More

The year 2024 brought significant developments across financial markets, shaped by shifting economic conditions, geopolitical dynamics, and post-election policy changes. Technology and energy sectors made headlines with rapid innovation and growth, while the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rates kept investors on edge. Read More